Is Affordability Starting To Improve?

Over the past couple of years, a lot of people have had a hard time buying a home. And while affordability is still tight, there are signs it’s getting a little better and might keep improving throughout the rest of the year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Housing affordability is improving ever so modestly, but it is moving in the right direction.” Here’s a look at the latest data on the three biggest factors affecting home affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.  1. Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates have been volatile this year, bouncing around from the mid-6% to low 7% range. But there’s some good news. Data from Freddie Mac shows rates have been trending down overall since May (see graph below): Mortgage rates have improved lately in part because of recent economic, employment, and inflation data. Moving forward, some rate volatility is to be expected. But if future economic data continues to show signs of cooling, experts say mortgage rates could keep going down.  Even a small drop can help you out. When rates decline, it’s easier to afford the home you want because your monthly payment will be lower. Just don’t expect them to go back down to 3%. 2. Home Prices The second big thing to think about is home prices. Nationally, they’re still going up this year, but not as fast as they did a couple of years ago. The graph below uses home price data from Case-Shiller to illustrate that point: If you’re thinking about buying a home, slower price growth is good news. Home prices went up a lot during the pandemic, making it hard for many people to buy. Now, with prices rising more slowly, buying a home may feel less out of reach. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says:  “While housing affordability is low for potential first-time home buyers, slowing price appreciation and lower mortgage rates could help – so the dream of homeownership isn’t boarded up just yet.” 3. Wages Another factor helping with affordability is rising wages. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have increased over time: Look at the blue dotted line. It shows how wages usually go up in a typical year. On the right side of the graph, you’ll see wages are rising even faster than normal right now – that’s the green line. This helps you because if your income increases, it’s easier to afford a home. That’s because you won’t have to spend as much of your paycheck on your monthly mortgage payment. Bottom Line When you put all these factors together, you see mortgage rates are trending down, home prices are rising more slowly, and wages are going up faster than usual. Though affordability is still a challenge, these trends are early signs things might be starting to improve.

The Great Wealth Transfer: A New Era of Opportunity

In recent years, there’s been a significant shift in how wealth is distributed among generations. It’s called the Great Wealth Transfer. Historically, the transfer of wealth from one generation to the next was a more gradual process, often limited to smaller amounts of inheritance or family savings. But today, the scale has increased in a big way. As a recent article from Bankrate says: “The biggest wave of wealth in history is about to pass from Baby Boomers over the next 20 years, and it’s going to have major impacts on many facets of life. Called The Great Wealth Transfer, $84 trillion is poised to move from older Americans to Gen X and millennials. If it’s managed smartly, Americans will be able to grow their wealth and ensure their financial security.” Basically, as more Baby Boomers retire, sell businesses, or downsize their homes, more substantial assets are being passed down to younger generations. And this creates a powerful ripple effect that’ll continue over the next few decades. The graph below uses data from Merrill and Cerulli Associates to give you an idea of how much inherited money is set to change hands through 2045: Impact on the Housing Market One of the most immediate effects of this wealth transfer is on the housing market. Home affordability has been a concern for many aspiring buyers, especially in high-demand areas. The increase in generational wealth is expected to ease some of these challenges by providing future homeowners with greater financial resources. As assets are passed down through generations, buyers may find themselves in a better position to afford homes. Merrill talks about that benefit in a recent article: “While millennials face steep barriers . . . to buying a first home in many markets, ‘that’s a for-now story, not a forever story’ . . . The Great Wealth Transfer should enable more of them to become homeowners — or trade up or add a second home — either through inherited property or the funds for a down payment.” Impact on the Economy But the Great Wealth Transfer doesn’t just impact housing. It’s also going to provide a new avenue for entrepreneurial spirits to fuel economic growth. If someone is looking to start a business and they’re receiving funds like this, that money can used as the necessary capital to start a new company. This helps the next generation of innovators and business owners bring their ideas to life. Bottom Line While affordability remains a challenge in today’s housing market, the ongoing Great Wealth Transfer is poised to unlock new opportunities. As wealth is passed down and put to use, it’s expected to ease some of the barriers to homeownership and fuel other entrepreneurial endeavors.

The Biggest Mistake Sellers Are Making Right Now

The housing market is going through a transition. Higher mortgage rates are causing more moderate buyer activity at the same time the supply of homes for sale is growing. And if you aren’t working with an agent, you may not realize that. Here’s the downside. If you’re not informed, you can’t adjust your strategy or expectations to today’s market. And that can lead to a number of costly mistakes. Here’s a look at some of the most common ones – and how an agent will help you avoid them when you sell.  1. Overpricing Your House Many sellers set their asking price too high and that’s why there’s an uptick in homes with price reductions today. An unrealistic price will deter potential buyers, cause an appraisal issue, or lead to your house sitting on the market longer. An article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains: “Some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever just because they can, but this may drive away serious buyers and result in unapproved appraisals . . .” To avoid falling into this trap, partner with a pro. An agent uses recent sales of similar homes, the condition of your house, local market trends, and so much more to find the price that’ll attract more buyers and open the door for multiple offers and a faster sale. 2. Skipping the Small Stuff You may try to skip important repairs, thinking you can pass the task on to your buyer. But visible issues (even if they’re small) can turn off potential buyers and result in lower offers or demands for concessions. As Money Talks News says: “Home shoppers like to turn on lights, flush toilets and run the water. If these basic things don’t work, they may assume you’ve skipped other maintenance. Homes that appear neglected aren’t likely to fetch top price.” If you want to get your house ready to sell, the best place to turn to for advice is your agent. They’ll be able to do a walk-through with you and point out anything you’ll need to tackle before the photographer comes in. 3. Not Looking at Things Objectively Buyers today are feeling the pinch of high home prices and mortgage rates. With affordability that tight, they may come in with an offer that’s lower than you’d want to see – especially if you didn’t stage, price, or market the house well. It’s important you don’t take this personally. Getting overly emotional can put the sale at risk. As an article from Ramsey Solutions says: “Remember, a buyer’s offer is not a reflection of their opinion of your home or your housekeeping abilities. . . The sale of your home is strictly a business transaction. If they start out with a low offer, don’t take it personally and get emotional. Instead, channel that energy toward negotiating. Work with your agent and make a counteroffer.” 4. Being Unwilling To Negotiate The supply of homes for sale has grown. That means buyers have more options, and with that comes more negotiation power. As a seller, you may see more buyers getting an inspection, requesting repairs, or asking for help with closing costs today. You need to be prepared to have those conversations. As U.S. News Real Estate explains: “If you’ve received an offer for your house that isn’t quite what you’d hoped it would be, expect to negotiate . . . the only way to come to a successful deal is to make sure the buyer also feels like he or she benefits . . . consider offering to cover some of the buyer’s closing costs or agree to a credit for a minor repair the inspector found.” An agent will walk you through what levers you may want to pull based on your own goals, budget, and timeframe. 5. Not Using a Real Estate Agent Notice anything? For each of these mistakes, partnering with an agent helps prevent them from happening in the first place. That makes trying to sell your house without an agent’s help the biggest mistake of all. Real estate agents have experience and expertise in pricing, marketing, negotiating, and more. That knowledge streamlines the selling process and usually results in drumming up more interest and ultimately can get you a higher final price. Bottom Line If you want to avoid making mistakes like these, you need to call us. 

How The Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates

As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what’s ahead. One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate. The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are: The Rate of Inflation How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Unemployment Rate Here’s the latest data on all three. 1. The Rate of Inflation You’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly. The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below): 2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding The Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says: “. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.” So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see. 3. The Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people. But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below): It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control. What Does This Mean Moving Forward? While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said: “We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.” Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting. Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond. Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it’s usually not a good idea to try to time the market.